In the research project Unchain, coordinated by Western Norway Research Institute, the partners have carried out eleven case analyses in seven countries. An important result of the collaboration is a new method for analysing physical climate risk.
The list of countries that have been represented in Unchain include Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Austria, Sweden, and France.
Unchain refers to "Unpacking climate impact CHAINs. A new generation of action – and user-oriented climate change risk assessments". The project name also refers to the method that has been key to the project: the impact chain analysis. An important characteristic is that both climate change and societal change are considered in the analysis of local, physical climate risk. The method emphasizes the inclusion of user groups in the process, e.g. inhabitants, farmers or fire personnel.
The Austrian partners in the project studied consequences of drought for agriculture, across borders, inviting public partners, farmers’ associations, farmers, the insurance industry, and researchers to participate in the process.
policy advice
The project is wrapped up in 2023 and will deliver a policy briefing that includes policy-relevant insights from the project, advice to various levels of governance on how the approach to analysing physical climate risk may be improved. Project Coordinator Carlo Aall at Western Norway Research Institute presented this at the 6th European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2023.
The policy advice, in brief:
Make use of the impact change analysis framework in analysing physical climate risk
Apply the approach “reflect-then-act” instead of the traditional «predict-then-act» when faced with climate uncertainty
Always include societal change in addition to climate change, in assessing physical climate risk
Develop methods and datasets for assessing trans-border climate risk when evaluation the traditional local form of physical climate risk
Include a wide variety of users in conducting assessment processes